The Champions League returns with the final two matchdays of the group phase. All teams are placed in a single league table, from which the top 24 sides—based on points, wins, and goal difference—will progress to the knockout stage. The top eight teams qualify directly for the round of 16, while teams finishing from ninth to twenty-fourth place will contest the tie-knockout phase play-offs to secure their place in the last 16.
This is a World Cup year, and many teams had only a very short winter break. Earlier than usual, the Italian and French leagues resumed a few weeks ago, followed by the German league. A significant amount of time was devoted to World Cup organisation, national team camps, friendly matches, and preparations for the tournament. As a result, domestic leagues have had to finish much earlier than in seasons without a World Cup.
In England, football has been played continuously, meaning teams enter this round in strong physical condition and full tactical rhythm. This contrasts sharply with sides such as Bodø/Glimt and Qarabag, who have played only one match since December, and that was a friendly. Their lack of competitive matches and match fitness clearly benefits the English teams, who should be well-positioned to achieve solid results in this Champions League round. It would not be surprising to see a high number of victories and several dominant performances.
In this article, we will focus on analysing the upcoming Champions League fixtures involving English clubs. We will present our views, break down the key tactical aspects, and ultimately deliver our conclusions in the form of match predictions.
Bodø/Glimt -Manchester City
Bodø/Glimt did not achieve impressive results in their first Champions League campaign, but they have certainly not said their final word in this competition. The Norwegian side has collected only three points so far, with three defeats and three draws. Bodø/Glimt have not played a competitive match since December in the Champions League. Due to extreme winter conditions in Norway, the domestic season is scheduled in a different calendar period to make football possible during the colder months.
Manchester City were widely tipped by many as potential Premier League champions, but a series of setbacks and dropped points have completely altered their trajectory. From a position where they were firmly in the title race, City have squandered valuable points.
The team that has Erling Haaland, combined with a perfect midfield, fantastic dribblers like Doku, and what should be an easy task for Pep Guardiola, has taken to collapsing in the title race in the PL. Even with the quality available in midfield, including players such as Bernardo Silva, the balance and consistency have been lacking. Rotation by Pep Guardiola was critical, and has ruined City’s chances in the Premier League.
Guardiola appears to have lost control of the situation once again, and despite Haaland’s explosive form at the start of the season and the presence of elite midfielders, City have fallen out of the title race. Their recent performances reflect a team struggling for clarity, efficiency, and defensive solidity.
Manchester City is converting critically cause Guardiola’s very bad rotation, but will have many, many chances here to score.
Prediction: We are confident that Manchester City are no longer the clear favourite. In recent matches, they have consistently dropped points, but it is entirely realistic to believe that Bodø/Glimt could produce a major surprise at home. A strong, inspired performance in front of their own fans could become one of the most memorable and wanted nights in the club’s history.
Quality is completely on the Manchester City side, and Bodo did not win in the Champions League, yet they were not that close. The stronger team and gameplay that suits City are making this night without many dilemmas
Our recommendation is a Manchester City victory.
Inter- Arsenal
Inter Milan have finally reached top form in Serie A, sitting in first place and emerging as clear favourites to win the league. Last season’s finalists are in their best shape since Cristian Chivu took over the club. The team is in a very strong position ahead of this match: they are in excellent form, scoring freely, playing with intensity, and operating as a compact, well-structured unit. Inter have already secured qualification for the next phase of the competition.
On the other hand, Arsenal have already guaranteed their progression. After their victory against Bayern Munich in the Champions League group stage, Arsenal stopped being dominant in terms of performances, but they continued to win matches. Results have remained positive, but the level of football has decreased, and the expatriations have slightly dropped.
This fixture could suit Arsenal, as facing a top-level opponent offers them an opportunity to rediscover their best football and competitive edge. Matches like this often bring clarity to their tactical identity and rhythm.
Inter are our favourites and should be expected to win this clash. However, Arsenal remain one of the strongest teams in European football. The advantage goes to Inter primarily because of their superior current form, cohesion, and momentum. Also, Arsenal is first in the Champions League table, and they do not need a victory here.
Tottenham-Borussia Dortmund
Tottenham arrive in this fixture in poor form and with clear structural issues, while Borussia Dortmund are in a strong moment and are well-positioned to take advantage. The contrast in momentum between the two sides is significant.
Dortmund have shown clear development over the past two seasons. Under Niko Kovač, the team has gained tactical stability, physical edge, and attacking efficiency. They are playing with confidence and converting chances at a high rate. Sitting second in the Bundesliga, Dortmund have beaten every major domestic opponent apart from Bayern Munich, which underlines their competitive level and consistency.
Tottenham, by comparison, look fragile. Performances lack cohesion, and defensive balance is poor.
Given form, structure, and game management, Dortmund should be considered clear favourites.
Chelsea – Pafos
Rosenior has only just started, and it appears he is first structuring the team by positions, with a clear emphasis on defensive stability. Chelsea looks seriously affected by fitness issues, injuries, and illnesses, and many players are not at their physical peak.
Two years under Maresca have left a clear mark. He insisted on an extremely high tempo on the pitch and a strong offensive output from many players. Defensive rotation was poor, and key players were used constantly across all competitions.
The Club World Cup situation is still unresolved, and it has negatively affected Chelsea’s fitness levels. Several players were heavily used over the summer and did not get proper rest. Reece James and Palmer did not train with the team, yet both still played the match.
Rosenior is clearly prioritising defensive organisation. Under Maresca, Chelsea focused on positional football, attacking dominance, and controlling games. That approach, however, led to an exhausted squad.
Rosenior has begun to stabilise the defence, but the players are currently physically unprepared at this stage of the season.
Pafos are arguably the ideal opponent for Chelsea at this moment, which is why we place Chelsea as clear favourites in this match. This should be a different Chelsea—less controlling the ball and play, adjusted to secure a victory, rather than a team forced to push every game to the extreme.
Chelsea are well-positioned to win this fixture, and Pafos suit them stylistically. The matchup allows Chelsea to manage the game, but they are playing like that thet are avoiding situations in which they will make a mistake. Like under Maresca, they lose many balls and get counterattacked. They are now smart, and under Rosenior, they know their weaknesses well and are avoiding them wisely.
Chelsea is currently in a healing and recovery phase after the damage left by Maresca’s approach—his insistence on playing ninety minutes at the highest possible intensity, every week, took a clear toll. This match offers Chelsea the opportunity to stabilise, rotate more intelligently, and return to winning ways without unnecessary physical strain.
The players desperately need to rest, and there is an illness present in the team.
Prediction: Chelsea wins.
Marseille- Liverpool
Marseille are in strong form this season. Although they did not take first place in Ligue 1, they remain one of the league’s most competitive sides. Behind Lens and PSG, they have established themselves as the third force in French football. The heavy defeat to PSG in the French Super Cup was a significant psychological blow, but the team has recovered well since then and has shown consistency in domestic competition.
In the Champions League, however, Marseille have not reached the same level as in Ligue 1, which suggests that their season is not quite as impressive as it may appear on paper. Even so, they are capable of troubling Liverpool’s defence and find themselves in a solid position ahead of this match.
Liverpool, on the other hand, has been playing poorly for more than a month. They are struggling to score against almost any opponent, yet they remain far more experienced in matches of this magnitude. Their victory over Inter helped restore their standing in the Champions League.
Prediction: Draw.
Newcastle-PSV
Newcastle are in a good position in the Champions League this season. Despite extremely inconsistent form in domestic competition, they have performed relatively well in Europe, aside from a heavy defeat to Marseille in France. That match proved to be a turning point, as the team’s form dropped significantly afterwards, and uncertainty began to surround their performances.
They have since lost to Manchester City in the EFL Cup and failed to secure a win against Wolverhampton. However, a victory here would almost certainly see them progress, with a strong chance of finishing in a position that would send them directly into the round of sixteen.
On paper, the situation looks favourable for Newcastle, but doubts remain. PSV are in dominant form in the Netherlands and arrive with confidence. They are comfortable playing against a side like Newcastle and have the quality to secure a win over 90 minutes. The opening phase of the match will be crucial in setting the tone.
PSV can play against Newcastle, and they can achieve a victory in 90 minutes of football. The opening moments will be the most important.
Newcastle can win here also, and it would be so great for them, but football is not that simple.
Prediction: PSV win.
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